Study: Collapse of Ocean Currents Could Cause Major Climate Problems

01Scientists are warning of the possible collapse of an Atlantic Ocean current system that would likely lead to worldwide climate changes.

02Researchers identify the ocean system as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC.

03They say the system plays an important part in moving or circulating salt and warm water around the world.

04This process helps control world temperatures, affects carbon dioxide levels, and supports worldwide water flows.

05The AMOC system brings warm water to northern areas and carries cold water south, the U.S.

06National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, explains.

07The circulation also transports nutrients necessary to support many kinds of sea life.

08The process begins as warm and salty surface water flows northward toward Greenland in the Atlantic.

09Scientists created a complex climate model in an effort to simulate a possible collapse of the AMOC.

10The computer model was able to measure a sudden weakening of the ocean circulation, the team said in a statement.

11The research was led by scientists from Utrecht University in the Netherlands.

12A study describing their findings recently appeared in the publication Science Advances.

13For thousands of years, Earth's oceans have depended on the AMOC circulation system, which acts like a conveyor belt, to control climate.

14The system is still operating but has experienced slowdowns in recent years.

15The driver of the conveyor belt sits off the coast of Greenland.

16As more ice melts here from climate change, more freshwater flows into the North Atlantic and slows the circulation, said Rene van Westen.

17He is a climate scientist and oceanographer at Utrecht University.

18Van Westen told the Associated Press, His research on a possible AMOC collapse does suggest we are heading towards a tipping point.

19He added, however, that while his team found clear evidence the system is moving closer to collapse, We're not sure how much closer.

20In the current system, cold, deeper, and fresher water heads south past both Americas and then east past Africa.

21The system also pushes saltier, warmer ocean water from the Pacific and Indian oceans past the southern tip of Africa.

22This water flows to and around Florida before continuing up the U.S.

23east coast towards Greenland.

24The Dutch team simulated 2,200 years of AMOC flow.

25The researchers added to the model expectations for future human-caused climate change.

26The results predicted an abrupt AMOC collapse after 1,750 years.

27But the researchers noted it is difficult to provide a realistic date because the process could be influenced by many unknown circulation events.

28Making a prediction is also difficult because current observational records are too short to provide an exact estimation of collapse, the scientists said.

29The team said more physics-based measuring tools are necessary to create early warning systems.

30The team noted one difficult area to predict is around the tip of Africa, where it is difficult to produce realistic estimates of circulation flows.

31Measurements around that area have a big effect on how much the AMOC slows, the researchers said.

32This value is getting more negative under climate change, Van Westen said.

33He added that when the AMOC reaches a certain level, the change does not happen over time, but would be more cliff-like, he added.

34Van Westen said an AMOC collapse would mostly affect climate in Europe.

35The researchers say a collapse could reduce temperatures in northwestern Europe by 5 to 15 degrees Celsius.

36Their study predicts the change would also extend Arctic ice much farther south, raise temperatures in the southern hemisphere, and change worldwide rainfall.

37Some scientists warned the climate effects could cause worldwide food and water shortages.

38In addition, the team said the simulation predicted a possible 100-centimeter rise in European sea levels if the AMOC collapsed.

39Fun Westen warned that once the collapse happens, the resulting climate effects are nearly impossible to change.

40Another member of the team, Hank Dykstra, said staying clear of such a tipping point is necessary to avoid the devastating consequences on climate, society, and the environment.

41I'm Brian Lynn.