Space Agencies Report Increased Risk of Space Rock Striking Earth in 2032

01Scientists say the threat of a large space rock striking the Earth in 2032 has increased.

02Recent calculations suggest there is a small chance, perhaps around 1-3%, the space rock 2024 YR4 will hit Earth in 2032.

03This also means there is around a 97-99% chance it will safely pass our planet in that year.

04The odds of a strike will likely continue to go up and down as the asteroid's path around the Sun is better understood.

05And scientists say there is a good chance the risk will drop to zero.

06NASA and the European Space Agency's Webb Space Telescope will observe this near-Earth asteroid in March before the object becomes impossible to see.

07Once that happens, scientists will have to wait until 2028 when it passes our way again.

08Asteroids are space rocks orbiting the Sun.

09Asteroids are much smaller than planets.

10Scientists believe they are the leftovers from the solar system's formation 4.6 billion years ago.

11There are millions of asteroids orbiting the Sun between Mars and Jupiter.

12That area is known as the main asteroid belt.

13The asteroids sometimes get pushed out of the belt and can end up elsewhere.

14A telescope in Chile discovered the asteroid 2024 YR4 in late December.

15It is estimated to measure between 40 and 90 meters across.

16NASA said observations by the Webb Space Telescope should provide a more exact measurement.

17At first, NASA and the European Space Agency put the odds of a strike at just over 1%.

18NASA described the likelihood of a strike as extremely low.

19Until scientists have a better understanding of the asteroid's path around the Sun, they warned that the odds will continue to change and quite possibly fall to zero.

20You don't have to be worried about anything.

21It's a curiosity, said Larry Deneau.

22He is a software engineer at the University of Hawaii working with ATLAS, a program to identify asteroids that might endanger Earth.

23That effort first spotted the asteroid.

24Deneau said, Don't panic.

25Let the process play out, and we'll have a for-sure answer.

26In 2021, NASA said another possibly worrisome asteroid, Apophis, did not present a risk to Earth.

27NASA made the announcement after additional telescope observations ruled out any chance of it hitting Earth in 2068.

28Experts say it is too soon to worry about 2024 YR4.

29Paul Chodas is director of NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.

30Chodas said in an email to the Associated Press, Chodas said, Chodas added, It is unclear where it might hit, and what the possible effects would be should it strike Earth.

31Asa said, If the asteroid is smaller, the effect might be similar to the Tunguska event that flattened thousands of square kilometers of forest in Siberia in 1908.

32But if the asteroid is larger, close to 100 meters, the effects would be significantly worse.

33Chodas said once the Webb telescope measures the asteroid's size, NASA can predict how serious an impact this asteroid could produce, and how difficult a task it might be to deflect this asteroid.

34NASA already has some experience moving an asteroid.

35The space agency's DART spacecraft hit a harmless asteroid in 2022.

36This was the first planetary defense test of its kind, changing the asteroid's orbit around its larger companion asteroid.

37I'm John Russell.